Further to my comments about Dubai and Dubailand, sadly I must eat a little crow here as terrorist alerts mean Orlando may have nothing to fear from this Middle Eastern State as the british government warns off visitors to the UAE.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/7456547.stm
Then again, after 7/7 the US advised Americans not to come to the UK either? Only time will tell. I just hope nothing does happen.
Monday 16 June 2008
Friday 13 June 2008
Will it be a hard winter in Orlando? or Where should the UK Disneyfan go with their £'s?
Well as we know the world's economy is starting to get people to tighten their belts further and further. And Disney fans know that their addiction is a hard one to quell. The dollar is weak against the pound, but the new fuel and baggage handling charges have really made the US a really expensive option compared to 3 months ago. The Euro is expensive, but how expensive is it? In terms of cash cost though Walt Disney World (WDW) loses out, and that is going to be really rough for the coming storms (and I don't mean those famous Florida Hurricanes). So Uk Disney fans, if you need a quality Disney fix and are not sure where to go, I urge a trip to Paris. You may not really be aware what the real cost and quality differences are.
In real terms, a family of four going for 6 days can expect WDW to cost 103% more than a trip to DLP, and Disneyland in sunny California is 12% cheaper than WDW. So for those speculators expecting the Europeans to bail out WDW in the coming times, I would argue that the savvy traveller is better off in Paris or California. And with the tightening of belts, I am not sure this bail out may come to pass.
It is no secret that while I have fun at WDW, I do not think it offers the same value as it's Californian older brother, preferring quality over quantity. For others it is vacation nirvana with so much choice they could think of going nowhere else (even though Southern California offers more theme parks, shopping and beaches overall than Florida, for a cheaper plane ticket and an hour extra on the airplane). And then there is Disneyland Paris. While it does not offer the same amount of entertainment as it's American or Japanese cousins, it is one of the most beautiful resorts Disney has created, and finds it's own stride. My crystal ball tells me though that the coming economic storm will have profound impacts on each resort.
As discussed yesterday, Disneyland will probably do well as the millions of people within the 2 hour driving distance may opt for backyard vacations. The developments at Disney's California Adventure will probably continue (though maybe at a slower rate). But as we know, they need to focus on quality to appease the most critical (and some could argue most loving) fans in the Disney kingdom.
Disneyland Paris has done very well with the 15th Anniversary this last year, coming the closest to making a profit in it's 16 year history. With 4 new attractions and 3 excellent marketing campaigns across Europe, the parks are packed. As I can attest on my many walks through St Pancras International when the Disneyland Paris train rolls in, the place is more popular than ever. So it seems like the expansion balloons recently seen in Walt Disney Studios, along with the many rumours of expansion in Disneyland Parc itself, may well come to fruition. Again though, Disney must be careful in this market too. Marketing could be improved in Austria and Germany where it is virtually non existent. And with rumours of taking out more theming in the village (Buffalo Trading Post) to be replaced by a Starbucks. Or plastic flowers replacing real foliage in Main Street. These changes do little to win over those in Europe who view Disneyland Paris as a cheapqual. Also, prices have been steadily rising too. While this in itself is not a bad thing, it cannot be at the expense of quality.
But Walt Disney World better brace itself, for the storm is likely to be very cold indeed. With the tabled items of Flamingo Crossroads, and a new 100 lane bowling alley, these are hardly anything to pull the European market in. And then some say, what about the new 4 Seasons property or the proposed Night Kingdom? Well 4 Seasons is a largely unknown brand in the UK (and I am guessing the rest of Europe) and given so few Europeans ever talk about Discovery Cove, or even La Nouba, I am not guessing that will be a pull either. So what are the alternatives?
Well Kevin Yee on MiceAge and other Disney pundits are hearing rumours of free dining extensions to people staying on site, the reduction of hours, or even a dark day at Disney Hollywood Studios or Disney's Animal Kingdom. All of these I think could have a profoundly damaging impact.
First the dining plan, well at one level this seems a great deal. But as we have seen, since the Disney Dining Plan has come on board, it is near impossible to get the restaurant of choice on short notice (and that is for those of us in the know, what about neophyte visitors?), the quality may diminish (numerous accounts of San Angel Inn has demonstrated that as a chief complaint), choice and quality may take a hit at the same time ($25, £12.50, 10 euro hamburger in the Epcot France Pavilion anyone???). Not great for a resort where dining used to be outstanding and a real draw. Not that many years ago I would have called WDW the dining capitol of Disney. Sadly in the quality and choice stakes, I feel that is no longer the case.
Shortening hours. This option is sad, but a little easier to chew, provided there were not all these additional cost nights at the Magic Kingdom or proposed at the Studios park. But the dark day at WDW is almost inexcusable. If the park were marketed as a local park, not a problem. But people save up for many years for a once in a lifetime trip. They may take their kids out of school to take advantage of the smaller crowds (and price tags too). To then close a park negates the benefits. While on the face of it, the response seems fiscally prudent, the good will towards the guest will get lost. Not a good legacy for the resort marketed as the largest, most successful theme park on the planet (to potentially be dwarfed by Dubailand in the coming decade).
There are numerous measures Disney could take to negate the impact, make Walt Disney World the highest quality resort. Put on new entertainment. Market for the whole family, not just narrow demographics. Continue to expand, making the Disney Vacation Club seem like the must have item for those with money. Offer perks to your loyal fans. If more and more is cut away (to match the felling of the trees), eventually those of us who can travel will choose to take our money elsewhere. The less loyal theme park fan will enjoy the Universal and Seaworld resorts. The savvy European Disney fan will opt for Paris, Anaheim, or maybe even Tokyo.
But just on a value for money to the European Disney fan I offer the following financial model, the results may just surprise you (prices first in pounds, but lower down in US dollars and Euros):
This is based on 2 adults and 2 children under 7 going from the UK and staying in a good hotel at Disneyland Paris (Hotel New York), Walt Disney World (Swan and Contemporary) and Disneyland (the Disneyland Hotel) all quite comparable IMHO. Eating a quick breakfast (danish, yogurt and coffee), a counter service lunch - main, dessert and drink, and a 3 course table service at a restaurant such as Le Cellier, Blue Bayou and the Silver Spur. On the 6 day vacation it allows for 1 character meal, 1 special show (at WDW Hoop Dee Doo or Luau, DL - The Fantasmic Dessert Buffet, and DLP Buffalo Bill's Wild West Show - though quality is closer to La Nouba than Hoop Dee Doo), and buying 5 pins. Tokyo Disneyland and Hong Kong Disneyland have been left out due to the lower numbers of Europeans currently frequenting those resorts. It is using UK, US and Euro exchange rates looking at the last week of August to enjoy full summer season perks (Fantillusion and the new Enchanted Fireworks at Disneyland Paris; Fantasmic, DEP etc. at DL; and longer park hours at all three resorts), and the Christmas week:
So when I see figures like these and consider my happiest Disney memories, well I think there is a greater pull to other resorts. Yes, these are based on standard rates, and you can do things cheaper (use tescos club card points to get to Paris, stay off site in Florida etc.), but they give an indication of the kind of spenders I think Disney want to entice. I just hope that rather than commoditise WDW while cutting back the quality further, that Disney really invest further. How much plastic princess and pirate stuff will people want to buy? Although the WDW trained management of DLP are not perfect, and Paris does not always offer the quintessential Disney experience, at £124/$249/ €99 per person per night, compared to WDW at £252/$505/ €273 per person per night, I think more prudent Europeans will be spending Euros rather than dollars. Will the proposed sunshine and American experience be enough to pull people over . It seems the dollar differential may not pay off for tourists or Americans. And that is really scary for the house of mouse Orlando. Hopefully great news for DLP fans.Fuller financial details:
Thursday 12 June 2008
International Disney Economics - near future
Well folks, as I lay bored in my sick bed today, I have read a number of threads showing concern about what Disney might do if the fuel costs and economic softening bites hard on the Disney resorts around the globe. With rumours abound of new developments (DCA placemaking, new attractions and shows on the slate for WDW, height balloons at WDSP); these attractions we Disney fans yearn for could go on the back burner. As I read about the slow down, foreclosures, and the like in my birth land in the US, and over here in my new (well if 66% of your life is new) homeland in the UK, it makes one wonder about the future.
From Kevin Yee’s article on MiceAge, to the ponderings of many board posters (you know who you are). A few bury their heads in the sand and say there is no down turn, its other people’s fault. Others say, ok, we will weather the storm and the Europeans will save us because of the weak dollar and warmer weather. Well, I am afraid I am not as optimistic as those speculators. It is now cheaper to go to Disneyland Paris by far (analysis to come in the next update), and the quality at WDW (which to my mind is already not what it once was), is on the verge of declining by even greater degrees. Disneyland I am sure will weather the storm, and Disneyland Paris is likely to perform well too. But WDW and corporate Disney are likely to take a hit and that can slow the impact on the rest of Disney’s development.
In the meantime the rest of the world is kicking it up a notch or 3. In Dubai they're building a real EPCOT (though scarily with no master plan or architect), in downtown Jebel Ali, they are building in GPS personalised Peoplemovers right now, as well as a whole light rail infrastructure to open by 2011/2012. With Atlantis, Universal Studios, Marvel Super Heroes, Sea World, Discovery Cove, Aquatica, Ferrariland and more coming, as well as the great 7 star hotels, and Marriott Vacation Club striking ground, Europeans may feel a greater pull towards Dubai, especially if the marketing machine kicks in.
Dubai and Macau near Hong Kong are potentially offering more impressive attractions now than Las Vegas or Disney, and the moneyed Europeans may now be setting their eyes east. Pretty soon WDW will have mainly the UK versions of red necks while the real spenders will go elsewhere (unless they are culturally or linguistically prudish, which upwardly mobile people tend not to be).
Cutting will not do Disney any favours. If they were really interested in the long term, they need to invest. Sadly, we know most of the execs are there for the short term, and it seems there is little vision left; the focus is on the markets. People like Joe Rohde, John Lasseter, and the tenacity of wonderful cast members give me hope, but I sense we are in for a mighty economic storm with a deep impact on Disney’s approach to the future.
Sorry guys, the Disney quality seems to be fading. It's still there in pockets (most new mega ventures at first - e.g. Expedition Everest, DVC; Disneyland is up to quality again; the Lion King Stage show; and I hear great things from seasoned cruisers about DCL), but when there is more Wal-Mart quality than Bloomingdale's (like the old days), well you have to ask yourself. The licenses seem to take up the largest chunk of the budgets, along with everyone’s return on sale; there seems little left for quality in merchandise, TV, and attraction design. If it’s toons, tweens, or thrills, well it’s happy clappy time. Disney, after being a visionary market shaper has become a commodity house, and the upcoming economic downturn is sure to impact deeply unless the guys in Burbank, Glendale and Orlando play it carefully.
If they do not, there will be trouble ahead. And when things get better economically (and we know eventually it will as the last 80 years have shown us to be a boom/bust economy), and there is nothing new, and Joe six pack no longer get's his "free $25 burger" in EPCOT's France pavilion (once known as a purveyor of fine foods), Disney will really struggle. The bargain hunter will go to the next best deal, or stay off site again. ~Those of us with a lifetime of loyalty may or may not still be there. And the international whales that they try to pull into the Deluxes or the new 4 Seasons will likely be in Dubai or Macau. And people are getting older. All this marketing to kids is silly too. Yes, hopefully there will always be kids. But it is the baby-boomer with all the money! Disney needs to remember that their founder wanted a place everyone could enjoy, aiming at narrow demographics will not improve their economic potential.
This is not the first economic down turn in Disney’s international history, and it won’t be the last. Let’s hope Disney tries something new rather than getting back to their recent old tricks – anyone been to Pop Century lately – the ghosts of the last downturn still therein remain.
“But Sooner or Later that rabbit is gonna come home
If they look to the past, look further back than the last 15 years, to a time where quality sold and can sell again. I hope we once again find the laughing place.
From Kevin Yee’s article on MiceAge, to the ponderings of many board posters (you know who you are). A few bury their heads in the sand and say there is no down turn, its other people’s fault. Others say, ok, we will weather the storm and the Europeans will save us because of the weak dollar and warmer weather. Well, I am afraid I am not as optimistic as those speculators. It is now cheaper to go to Disneyland Paris by far (analysis to come in the next update), and the quality at WDW (which to my mind is already not what it once was), is on the verge of declining by even greater degrees. Disneyland I am sure will weather the storm, and Disneyland Paris is likely to perform well too. But WDW and corporate Disney are likely to take a hit and that can slow the impact on the rest of Disney’s development.
In the meantime the rest of the world is kicking it up a notch or 3. In Dubai they're building a real EPCOT (though scarily with no master plan or architect), in downtown Jebel Ali, they are building in GPS personalised Peoplemovers right now, as well as a whole light rail infrastructure to open by 2011/2012. With Atlantis, Universal Studios, Marvel Super Heroes, Sea World, Discovery Cove, Aquatica, Ferrariland and more coming, as well as the great 7 star hotels, and Marriott Vacation Club striking ground, Europeans may feel a greater pull towards Dubai, especially if the marketing machine kicks in.
Dubai and Macau near Hong Kong are potentially offering more impressive attractions now than Las Vegas or Disney, and the moneyed Europeans may now be setting their eyes east. Pretty soon WDW will have mainly the UK versions of red necks while the real spenders will go elsewhere (unless they are culturally or linguistically prudish, which upwardly mobile people tend not to be).
Cutting will not do Disney any favours. If they were really interested in the long term, they need to invest. Sadly, we know most of the execs are there for the short term, and it seems there is little vision left; the focus is on the markets. People like Joe Rohde, John Lasseter, and the tenacity of wonderful cast members give me hope, but I sense we are in for a mighty economic storm with a deep impact on Disney’s approach to the future.
Sorry guys, the Disney quality seems to be fading. It's still there in pockets (most new mega ventures at first - e.g. Expedition Everest, DVC; Disneyland is up to quality again; the Lion King Stage show; and I hear great things from seasoned cruisers about DCL), but when there is more Wal-Mart quality than Bloomingdale's (like the old days), well you have to ask yourself. The licenses seem to take up the largest chunk of the budgets, along with everyone’s return on sale; there seems little left for quality in merchandise, TV, and attraction design. If it’s toons, tweens, or thrills, well it’s happy clappy time. Disney, after being a visionary market shaper has become a commodity house, and the upcoming economic downturn is sure to impact deeply unless the guys in Burbank, Glendale and Orlando play it carefully.
If they do not, there will be trouble ahead. And when things get better economically (and we know eventually it will as the last 80 years have shown us to be a boom/bust economy), and there is nothing new, and Joe six pack no longer get's his "free $25 burger" in EPCOT's France pavilion (once known as a purveyor of fine foods), Disney will really struggle. The bargain hunter will go to the next best deal, or stay off site again. ~Those of us with a lifetime of loyalty may or may not still be there. And the international whales that they try to pull into the Deluxes or the new 4 Seasons will likely be in Dubai or Macau. And people are getting older. All this marketing to kids is silly too. Yes, hopefully there will always be kids. But it is the baby-boomer with all the money! Disney needs to remember that their founder wanted a place everyone could enjoy, aiming at narrow demographics will not improve their economic potential.
This is not the first economic down turn in Disney’s international history, and it won’t be the last. Let’s hope Disney tries something new rather than getting back to their recent old tricks – anyone been to Pop Century lately – the ghosts of the last downturn still therein remain.
“But Sooner or Later that rabbit is gonna come home
(gonna come home)
He's learned his lesson again.”
If they look to the past, look further back than the last 15 years, to a time where quality sold and can sell again. I hope we once again find the laughing place.
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